ITESO: Informality as a Driver of Growth in Jalisco

Jalisco closed 2025 with an economic signal that compels a look beyond employment and investment: a growing portion of its economic expansion is occurring outside traditional formal frameworks.

According to the June 2026 Economic Analysis Bulletin, prepared by ITESO’s School of Business based on official statistics, the state’s informal economy registered an annual growth of 3.8%, surpassing the national average of 2.2% and exceeding the pace observed in various indicators of formal economic activity.

This figure places Jalisco 12th among the 32 entities in the country for its informal economy dynamism, indicating that the phenomenon has ceased to function solely as a labor market adjustment mechanism and has become a structural component of state growth.

At the national level, the context is equally revealing: while Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by a mere 0.7% in 2025, the Gross Value Added (GVA) of the informal economy increased by 2.3%, accounting for approximately 80% of the observed economic growth.

Jalisco Generated Over 444 Billion Pesos in the Informal Economy

The economic magnitude of this phenomenon is no longer marginal. In 2025, the informal Gross Value Added generated in Jalisco reached 444,402 million constant pesos.

The composition reveals a relatively diversified economic structure:

Sector	Share of Informal GVA
Tertiary activities (commerce and services)	54.8%
Secondary activities (industry and construction)	26.6%
Primary activities (agriculture)	18.6%

This data is significant because it debunks a common perception: informality is no longer exclusively concentrated in micro-commercial businesses. In Jalisco, a substantial portion of recent growth is also linked to industrial and construction activities.

Construction Became the Major Driver of Informal Growth

Informal industrial and real estate activities grew by 10.4% annually, primarily driven by construction. Within this segment:

• Informal construction increased by 21.4% annually.
• It represented 15.1% of the state’s total informal GVA.
• Informal manufacturing declined by 1.3%.

This trend aligns with another phenomenon observed in Jalisco during 2026: formal construction continues to act as an economic buffer while manufacturing activity loses momentum. The structural question is whether this growth reflects increased genuine economic activity or a shift towards less institutionalized labor and operational schemes.

Commerce and Services Lose Momentum Despite Dominating the Economic Structure

Although the tertiary sector remains the largest, it showed signs of deceleration. Notable results include:

Activity	Annual Variation
Commerce	-0.2%
Accommodation and food services	+0.6%
Entertainment	+11.2%
Financial services	+8.8%
Professional services	+3.6%
Real estate activities	+3.5%

Collectively, tertiary sector growth was only 0.7%. This indicates that the increase in the state’s informal economy is no longer solely driven by street vending or everyday consumption. Part of the impetus now comes from activities with greater economic complexity.

The Contrast: Record Employment, but Signs of Industrial Cooling

The in Jalisco presents an apparent contradiction.

On one hand:

• The state reached a historic high of 2,079,066 workers registered with the IMSS.
• Between January and May 2026, it generated 24,211 formal jobs.
• The manufacturing industry led with 10,513 positions.

But at the same time:

• Industrial activity fell by 3.5% annually in February 2026.
• Manufacturing contracted by 5.5%.
• Energy, water, and gas decreased by 7.4%.
• Mining fell by 24.1%.

Construction once again prevented a deeper slowdown with 8.5% growth. This decoupling between employment, production, and informality suggests a more complex economic transition than aggregate indicators reveal.

Growing More Does Not Necessarily Mean Formalizing Development

The report’s main finding is not the existence of an informal economy. It is that an increasing proportion of economic growth is occurring outside fiscal, labor, and social protection mechanisms.

For an entity like Jalisco—which competes to attract investment, consolidate industrial chains, and strengthen high-value services—the challenge no longer appears to be solely expanding economic activity. The next challenge will be to ensure that a larger part of that growth occurs within productive schemes capable of boosting productivity, increasing tax revenue, and generating more stable employment.

The entry first appeared on Líder Empresarial.