Markets Experience Volatility Amid Rising Tensions in Hormuz: Dollar and Oil Prices

Growing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rattled global markets this Monday. The combination of a potential military-humanitarian operation led by U.S. President Donald Trump, warnings from Iran, and new maritime incidents reshaped investor sentiment, directly impacting oil prices, international stock exchanges, and the exchange rate in Mexico. Although initial optimism prevailed earlier on Monday due to negotiation signals, volatility returned strongly as news from the Middle East unfolded. Consequently, the dollar showed stability against the Mexican peso, while crude oil experienced mixed movements amid global energy supply uncertainty.

Market Volatility Context: The U.S. Stake in Hormuz

The most recent trigger for the tension was the announcement of “Operation Freedom,” an initiative spearheaded by Donald Trump to free dozens of vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf following an Iranian blockade. According to the president, the operation would commence this Monday with the goal of safely guiding over 20,000 sailors and hundreds of vessels, including oil tankers, gas carriers, and cargo ships, which have been stranded since the conflict began on February 28.

The U.S. president justified the measure as a humanitarian effort. He stated that vessels from “neutral and innocent” countries have been affected. Furthermore, he asserted that the intervention aims to guarantee global commercial flow and warned that any interference would be met “with force.”

However, operational details remain limited. Admiral Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, confirmed that the deployment includes guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea aircraft, as well as multi-domain unmanned platforms and approximately 15,000 military personnel. Concurrently, U.S. forces maintain a naval blockade on Iranian ports, which has resulted in the diversion of at least 49 commercial vessels.

Iran’s reaction was swift. From Parliament, the head of the National Security Commission, Ebrahim Azizi, warned that any U.S. intervention in the area would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. Additionally, Iranian authorities have reiterated that control of the Strait of Hormuz remains under their jurisdiction, allowing passage only to vessels not linked to the United States or Israel and under specific conditions such as the payment of tolls.

Dollar in Mexico: Stability Amid Global Noise

In contrast to international volatility, the Mexican peso showed resilience at the start of the trading day. This Monday, May 4, 2026, the exchange rate stood at 17.4965 pesos per dollar, with a gain of 0.28%. This performance is partly due to a global weakening of the dollar, as well as expectations of conflict stabilization.

At bank counters, exchange rates remained in broad ranges:

• Afirme: 16.50 buy | 18.00 sell
• Banco Azteca: 16.15 buy | 18.19 sell
• Banorte: 16.25 buy | 17.85 sell
• BBVA: 16.54 buy | 17.67 sell
• Banamex: 16.92 buy | 17.94 sell

Oil: Between Initial Declines and Tension-Driven Rebounds

The energy market clearly reflects geopolitical uncertainty. During the Asian session, crude oil prices showed a slight decline:

• Brent: 107.88 dollars per barrel (-0.3%)
• West Texas: similar downward trend

However, as the day progressed and tensions escalated, prices reversed course:

• Brent surpassed 110.5 dollars, with a 2.4% increase
• West Texas reached 103 dollars per barrel
• Natural gas rose over 2%, to 47 dollars per MWh

Despite these increases, prices remain below the recent highs of

recorded last week. Factors explaining this volatility include the possibility of global supply disruptions, the expectation of transit reopening in Hormuz, and negotiations between the United States and Iran. Furthermore, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day starting in June, in an attempt to stabilize global supply.

Global Stock Markets: From Optimism to Caution

Stock markets also mirrored the nervousness. In Europe, exchanges shifted from moderate gains to losses following unconfirmed reports of attacks on U.S. vessels. The performance was as follows:

• Ibex 35: -1.8% (affected by the banking sector)
• CAC 40 (France): -1%
• MIB (Italy): -0.8%
• DAX (Germany): -0.4%

Declines were concentrated in Banks (BBVA, Santander, Unicaja), tourism (Amadeus, IAG), and the luxury industry. In contrast, defense sector companies like Indra registered gains. In the United States, the session was mixed:

• Nasdaq: +0.1%
• S&P 500: unchanged
• Dow Jones: -0.5%

Meanwhile, Asia showed a more optimistic tone, with South Korea’s Kospi index surging over 5%, driven by the technology sector.

*You might also like to read:*The post

first appeared on Líder Empresarial.