Possible Tariff Increase: Challenges and Opportunities

By: potential imposition of tariffs of 25% on all Mexican exports to the United States of America: “…this tariff model is simply to close their borders […] it is not a tariff per se, it is a domestic policy action.” This statement clarifies that this increase in tariffs does not have a traditional economic purpose according to which it would be necessary to determine whether or not it brings an increase in revenue for the American treasury or to assess the purely economic cost for American consumers derived from that increase—economic parameters usually employed—but rather it is a political decision that responds to other guidelines that cannot be measured only with economic calculations. Lutnick himself stated in an interview with CNBC in September 2024 (visible on video platforms) that tariffs should be imposed on those goods that are produced in the USA and not on goods that are not produced in their territory. To the two previous statements, it must be added that according to several economic analyses—including that of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a private and independent analysis group, and that of Royal Bank of Canada—said tariff increase would have an impact of only 1.2% on US inflation, taking into account that the combined imports of Mexico and Canada do not reach 3.3% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).