Mexican Private Consumption to Grow 2.2% Annually in July, but Plateau Month-over-Month

Private Consumption in Mexico to Grow 2.2% Annually in July, but Plateau Month-over-Month

Private consumption in Mexico is projected to maintain annual growth through June and July 2026. However, the latest estimates from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) indicate a loss of momentum on a month-over-month basis.

According to the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP) is estimated to have recorded an annual increase of 2.5% in June and is expected to advance 2.2% in July 2026.

However, when comparing each month to the preceding one, the outlook suggests less impulse. For June, a growth of only 0.2% is anticipated, while private consumption is expected to show no monthly variation in July. These figures suggest that spending by Mexican households remains above last year’s levels, although its short-term advance may be losing strength.

Private Consumption to Grow 2.2% Annually in July

The IOCP estimates that in June 2026, private consumption would have increased by 2.5% compared to the same month in 2025. For July, the expected annual growth is projected to moderate to 2.2%, a difference of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

INEGI’s estimates are presented in seasonally adjusted figures and include 95% confidence intervals. For June, the estimated interval for annual growth ranges from 1.1% to 3.9%. For July, it ranges from 0.8% to 3.6%. This means that while the central estimate continues to point to consumption growth, there is a margin of uncertainty inherent in this type of timely calculation.

Consumption to Slow on a Monthly Basis in July

The monthly reading offers a different signal. INEGI estimates that private consumption grew by 0.2% in June compared to May, while in July, it is expected to remain unchanged, with a monthly rate of 0.0%.

The confidence interval for June spans from a contraction of 1.1% to growth of 1.5%. For July, the range is between a decrease of 1.3% and an increase of 1.4%. Although these estimates are subject to revision, the central forecast points to slower household spending momentum at the beginning of the third quarter of 2026.

What is the Current Level of Private Consumption in Mexico?

The IOCP estimates that the private consumption index, with a base of 2018=100, will reach 114.2 points in both June and July 2026. The fact that the index remains at the same level for both months aligns with the forecast of zero monthly growth for July.

INEGI’s level graph shows that private consumption remains near the highs observed since 2021, following a trajectory of recovery and growth post-pandemic. However, the estimates for June and July reflect stabilization around 114 points, rather than a significant new advance.

What is the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption?

The Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) was developed by INEGI to provide an early approximation of household spending behavior. The Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP) is typically published approximately nine weeks after the reference month. In contrast, the IOCP allows for a first estimate to be obtained two weeks later and a second estimate, with more available information, around six weeks later.

The purpose is to have a faster signal on one of the most relevant variables in the Mexican economy, as household consumption constitutes a fundamental component of aggregate demand.

The entry first appears on Líder Empresarial.