Is the Strong Peso Creating a Financial Gap in Guanajuato?

Guanajuato is facing a phenomenon best understood by analyzing the figures. While the state maintains its export strength and receives billions of dollars in remittances, the peso’s appreciation is changing the equation.

According to the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), Guanajuato received $2.7052 billion in remittances during the first half of 2026, the result of summing $1.2583 billion recorded between January and March and $1.4469 billion corresponding to April-June.

According to COFOCE and the Government of Guanajuato, companies in the state exported $14.439 billion between January and May 2026, a 6.8 percent annual growth.

A Strong Peso Changes the Value of Dollars Arriving in Guanajuato

Banxico indicates that the FIX exchange rate closed August 2026 at 17.0147 pesos per dollar, while the exchange rate for settling obligations on September 1st was 17.0427 pesos per dollar.

The difference may seem small when viewed dollar by dollar, but it takes on another dimension when applied to flows of billions.

For example, one thousand dollars was equivalent to 20,000 pesos when the exchange rate was 20 pesos per dollar. With an exchange rate of 17.0147 pesos, those same one thousand dollars represent approximately 17,015 pesos.

This does not mean that a family or a company has physically lost those dollars. It means that the same dollar-denominated income generates fewer pesos upon conversion.

And Guanajuato has a particularly relevant exposure because a significant part of its economy is linked to international flows of money and goods.

Remittances: Guanajuato Received $2.705 Billion in Six Months

According to Banxico, Guanajuato received $1.2583 billion in remittances during the first quarter of 2026 and $1.4469 billion during the second quarter.

The second quarter represented an increase of approximately 14.9 percent compared to the first.

The accumulated figure thus reached $2.7052 billion between January and June.

The data confirms that the flow of resources sent by Guanajuato residents living abroad remains considerable. However, the dollar amount does not tell the whole story.

According to Banxico, Guanajuato accounted for 9.03 percent of national remittances during the second quarter of 2026. In its 2024 annual report, the central bank also ranked the state as the second-largest recipient of remittances in the country, with a 8.7 percent share.

The peso’s strength modifies the value of these resources once they reach households.

If, purely as a mathematical exercise, the $2.7052 billion received by Guanajuato during the first half were valued at 20 pesos per dollar, it would represent approximately 54.104 billion pesos.

At an exchange rate of 17.0147 pesos per dollar, it would represent around 46.029 billion pesos.

It should be noted that this calculation does not represent an officially registered loss for Guanajuato. It is a conversion scenario to quantify how much lower the peso value of the same dollar flow is when the exchange rate goes from 20 to around 17 pesos.

The Blow Isn’t Fewer Dollars Arriving; It’s That Each Dollar Buys Fewer Pesos

When the dollar is trading at 20 pesos, each dollar sent from the United States generates 20 pesos upon conversion. When it trades at 17 pesos, it generates 17.

Therefore, for a family receiving remittances, the peso’s appreciation can reduce the available amount in national currency even if the relative living abroad continues to send the exact same amount of dollars.

According to Banxico, remittance figures are preliminary and subject to subsequent revisions.

The Congress of the State of Guanajuato, based on migration and remittance information, has also indicated that municipalities with the highest historical amounts received include León, Dolores Hidalgo, Celaya, and Irapuato, while Dolores Hidalgo and San Luis de la Paz appear among municipalities with very high levels of migratory intensity.

This helps explain why the exchange rate is not solely a financial variable for Guanajuato; it can also modify the peso value of resources that directly reach households.

The Other Front: Guanajuato Exports More but Converts Its Dollars to a Stronger Peso

According to COFOCE and the Government of Guanajuato, between January and May 2026, the state exported $14.439 billion, a figure 6.8 percent higher than that recorded during the same period in 2025.

The growth is equivalent to more than an additional $918 million compared to the $13.520 billion from the previous year.

During those five months, 1,511 companies from 36 municipalities participated, placing 1,741 products in 121 international destinations.

The data is particularly relevant due to the business composition: according to COFOCE, 79.2 percent of exporting companies were micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises.

Export strength, therefore, does not solely belong to large automakers or industrial corporations. It also involves hundreds of smaller companies.

Industry Maintains the Export Engine

According to COFOCE, the industry accounted for $12.764 billion of Guanajuato’s exports between January and May 2026, equivalent to 88.4 percent of the total.

The result shows that Guanajuato maintains a structure deeply linked to manufacturing and international trade.

The same COFOCE report indicates that agri-food reached $983.9 million; fashion, $361.9 million; construction, $285 million; and handicrafts, $44.7 million.

This means that the currency effect is not necessarily concentrated in a single sector.

It affects, with varying intensity, companies that charge in dollars but have a portion of their expenses in pesos.

Guanajuato is Caught Between Two Forces

Official data reflects Guanajuato’s enormous capacity to generate and attract foreign currency: on one hand, the remittances that migrants send to their families; on the other, an export platform that places products in over one hundred international markets.

Although between January and May, exports grew by 6.8% (according to COFOCE) and first-half remittances exceeded $2.705 billion (according to Banxico), the exchange rate closed August at 17.01 pesos per dollar.

Both phenomena coexist and reveal a nuance that goes beyond the “super peso”: the state produces foreign currency at a good pace, but its value translated into pesos has fallen compared to periods with a stronger dollar. This is where the true currency gap for Guanajuato lies, which is not due to a slowdown in international activity but to a lower peso return from a highly dollarized economy.

appears first on Líder Empresarial.