Mexican Strawberries Face Potential U.S. Anti-Dumping Measure: Impact on Producers
U.S. Department of Commerce preliminary determination on Mexican strawberry imports could lead to anti-dumping duties, impacting thousands of small producers.
Mexican strawberries are facing a new trade challenge in the United States. The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) has preliminarily determined that Mexican exporters engaged in dumping practices during the winter season, a conclusion that could result in the imposition of anti-dumping duties on sales of this fruit.
This resolution comes at a significant time for the Mexican agri-food sector, given the importance of the United States as the primary destination for strawberry exports. In 2025 alone, Mexico shipped approximately 263,000 tons of strawberries to the U.S. market, valued at around $1 billion.
The case extends beyond export companies. According to the Mexican Government, an eventual anti-dumping measure could impact nearly 5,000 producers, 97% of whom operate on surfaces of 10 hectares or less, as well as a production chain that generates approximately 151,000 jobs, including permanent and temporary workers.
For now, the Department of Commerce’s determination is preliminary. The process must still advance through further stages before a definitive resolution is reached.
Why is the United States Investigating Mexican Strawberries?
The origin of the dispute dates back to December 31, 2025, when Florida producers filed a request with the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) for the imposition of anti-dumping duties on strawberry exports from Mexico.
The distinct aspect of the petition lies in how the market was framed. U.S. producers sought to differentiate so-called “winter strawberries” from other strawberries and, additionally, to consider certain Eastern U.S. states as a separate regional market.
In commercial terms, dumping occurs when a product is exported at a price lower than its normal value. When authorities conclude that this practice causes or threatens to cause injury to the domestic industry, they can establish anti-dumping duties to offset that difference.
In this case, the Department of Commerce preliminarily estimated dumping margins ranging from 3.37% to 5.28%, depending on the exporter. For the majority of the Mexican producers involved, the estimated average margin is 4.83%.
While these percentages may seem moderate compared to other trade disputes, their significance lies in the fact that they could translate into additional costs for Mexican exports and alter the competitive landscape in one of its main markets.
Mexico Questions U.S. Analysis
#ComunicadoEconomía Mexico expresses concern over the preliminary decision by the United States Department of Commerce against Mexican strawberries https://t.co/OgM0vGfXQK pic.twitter.com/sflKnsgDAi— Economía México (@SE_mx) August 19, 2026
The Mexican Government expressed its concern over the preliminary resolution and stated that the methodology used by the Department of Commerce is based on assumptions it considers incorrect. One of the main points of contention is precisely the separation between so-called winter strawberries and strawberries in general.
In March 2026, the U.S. International Trade Commission preliminarily concluded that there were insufficient grounds to consider “winter strawberries” as a distinct product.
The ITC also determined that there was no basis to consider certain Eastern U.S. states as an independent regional market. On the contrary, it maintained that a national strawberry market exists in the United States.
Despite these preliminary conclusions from the ITC, the Department of Commerce maintained both concepts within its resolution. In Mexico, this difference between the criteria of the two authorities is central, as it could alter how competition between Mexican and U.S. production is analyzed.
The Mexican Government asserts that the assumptions used by the DOC are not consistent with the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Anti-Dumping Agreement and also questions their compatibility with various provisions of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
What Impact Would This Have for Strawberry Producers in Mexico?
The potential effect of the investigation is not limited to large export companies. One of the main areas of concern lies in the production structure of Mexican strawberries. Mexico has approximately 5,000 strawberry producers, and according to information presented by the Government, 97% cultivate areas of 10 hectares or less.
This means that an eventual anti-dumping measure could affect a broad base of small and medium-sized producers who participate directly or indirectly in the export chain. Added to this is the labor component.
Strawberry production generates around 151,000 jobs, including permanent and temporary positions. Therefore, any modification in the conditions of access to the U.S. market could have repercussions across different links in the chain, from cultivation and harvesting to packaging, transportation, marketing, and export.
The scale of the trade relationship also explains the significance of the case. In 2025, Mexico exported 263,000 tons of strawberries to the United States, equivalent to approximately $1 billion. The U.S. market is therefore a strategic component for Mexican industry.
An anti-dumping measure could increase the costs associated with exports and put pressure on the margins of producers and trading companies. In a scenario of international competition, this increase could force companies to absorb part of the cost, pass it on to their buyers, or seek alternatives to maintain their market share.
What’s Next for Mexican Strawberries in the U.S.?
The Department of Commerce’s resolution does not yet represent the closure of the case. The procedure will continue over the coming months, and Mexico will follow the case closely with producers and exporters.
Among the aspects that will need to be monitored are:
- The evolution of the anti-dumping investigation. The Department of Commerce will need to continue with the procedure before reaching a final determination on the indicated margins.
- The position of the International Trade Commission. The ITC will play a decisive role in the final stage of the process and will have to evaluate whether Mexican imports cause injury or threat of injury to the U.S. industry.
- Mexico’s arguments. The Mexican Government will seek to defend the producers’ position and question the criteria used to divide the product and define the U.S. market.
- The participation of producers and exporters. The involved Mexican companies will be able to continue contributing information and arguments within the procedure.
- The final resolution. The Mexican Government estimates that the ITC’s definitive decision could be known in early 2027.
The outcome will be significant not only for strawberries but also for the trade relationship between Mexico and the United States.
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