ITESO: Jalisco's Formal Employment Enters Zone of Pressure

The bulletin warns that this change should be closely monitored because permanent employment represents the most stable component of the formal market. If the trend continues, the bulletin indicates, the deterioration would cease to be primarily associated with temporary modalities and could reflect a broader weakening of formal labor demand in Jalisco.

Between August 2025 and August 2026, workers aged 15 to 34 lost 12,172 formal positions. In August alone, individuals aged 15 to 24 accounted for 4,780 lost jobs, around 41% of the monthly reduction. This situation contrasts with the evolution of other age groups. For example, workers aged 55 to 59 added 7,056 positions compared to August 2025. The result points to a recomposition of the labor market where the insertion and retention of young workers face greater difficulties.

Guadalajara and Zapopan Concentrate August Adjustments

The Guadalajara Metropolitan Area (AMG) lost 13,249 jobs in August, a reduction greater than the negative balance for all of Jalisco, as other regions partially offset the decline. Within the metropolitan area, the adjustment was particularly strong in Zapopan, with 10,374 fewer positions, and Guadalajara, with a reduction of 6,995. The result is especially significant for Zapopan because the municipality had accumulated a gain of 9,565 jobs during the first eight months of the year. August’s drop led it to end the period 809 positions below its 2025 year-end count. However, not all of the metropolitan area followed the same trajectory. San Pedro Tlaquepaque added 2,411 jobs in August; El Salto added 1,334, and Tlajomulco registered 424 additional positions. This divergence is important for business diagnostics: the AMG labor market is not experiencing a homogeneous contraction but rather differentiated adjustments between municipalities and sectors.

Services and Construction Explain a Significant Portion of Metropolitan Deterioration

In the AMG, the primary area of pressure is in services for businesses, individuals, and households. In August, this division lost 12,870 positions. Compared to December 2025, it has accumulated a reduction of 19,111 jobs. Within the sector, professional and technical services stand out, recording an interannual loss of 4,905 positions, as do security and protective services, with 3,698 fewer. Construction represents the second major area of adjustment. In August, it lost 4,144 positions in the AMG. The most striking data is in infrastructure works and public construction projects: between July and August, this activity lost 3,997 positions, approximately 96% of the net reduction in all metropolitan construction.

ITESO links this trend to a risk previously noted in earlier editions: the conclusion of infrastructure projects related to Guadalajara’s preparation for the 2026 World Cup could translate into job reductions. The bulletin itself, however, offers an important clarification: the available data does not allow for directly attributing the decline to the completion of these projects. What it does show is a concentration of adjustments in public infrastructure and construction works. Therefore, the institute proposes maintaining a continuous portfolio of infrastructure projects supported by economic and social needs, so that the closure of one project does not create long periods between projects.

Puerto Vallarta Faces a Different Challenge: Tourism Employment

Puerto Vallarta’s situation follows a different logic. The municipality generated 127 jobs in August and therefore did not experience a monthly decline. However, it has accumulated a reduction of 667 positions compared to August 2025 and 385 compared to December of that year. The primary focus is on temporary accommodation; this activity went from 16,574 positions in August 2025 to 15,475 in August 2026: a loss of 1,099 jobs, equivalent to 6.6%. Compared to December 2025, the reduction reaches 1,567 positions, approximately 9.2%. Temporary accommodation alone accounts for about 73% of the interannual loss recorded in services for businesses, individuals, and households in the municipality.

ITESO points out that this trend aligns with other indicators suggesting a lower tourist influx during 2026, both from domestic and international visitors, as well as air passengers. At the same time, construction maintains favorable performance: between December 2025 and August 2026, its positions increased by almost 25%. The reading, therefore, is not one of a generalized crisis in Puerto Vallarta’s labor market, but rather of pressure concentrated in specific tourism activities, particularly accommodation.

Outside the AMG, Agriculture Concentrates Losses

In the 115 municipalities considered the “rest of Jalisco”—that is, outside the AMG and Puerto Vallarta—formal employment accumulated a loss of 4,004 positions during 2026. However, August showed a recovery of 1,406 jobs, contrasting with the strong metropolitan contraction. The main explanation lies in the agricultural sector. Agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishing, and hunting lost 7,101 positions compared to December 2025 and 5,029 year-on-year. The deterioration is concentrated almost entirely in agriculture: this activity went from 73,848 positions in December 2025 to 65,942 in August 2026, a reduction of 7,906 jobs. The ten municipalities with the largest year-on-year reductions accounted for a combined decrease of 6,078 agricultural jobs. Zapotlán el Grande led the decline with 1,459 fewer jobs, followed by Tepatitlán de Morelos, Jocotepec, San Gabriel, Autlán de Navarro, Lagos de Moreno, and Tala. This observation suggests that rural deterioration cannot be addressed as a uniform phenomenon either; it requires identifying the production chains and specific conditions of the affected municipalities.

Fewer Employer Registrations: A Sign of Pressure on Small Businesses

The labor deterioration is accompanied by another relevant trend: a decrease in employer registrations with IMSS. Between December 2025 and August 2026, Jalisco lost 2,298 employer registrations. At the end of August, there were 102,003 registrations, compared to the maximum of 107,900 reached in November 2023. The reduction has been particularly intense among smaller-sized registrations. Employers with a single worker decreased by 794 registrations, and those with two to five workers lost 1,137. Combined, registrations of up to five workers accounted for 1,931 decreases, equivalent to 84% of the total reduction.

This data should be interpreted rigorously: an employer registration does not necessarily equate to a business, so its decrease does not by itself demonstrate the closure of a business. IMSS itself notes that registrations are administrative units and that decreases can occur for various reasons, including update processes, data cleansing, or administrative changes. What the indicator does identify is a particularly marked reduction in the smaller employer base. By activity, commerce lost 764 registrations between December and August; services for businesses, individuals, and households, 582; and manufacturing, 415. These three divisions account for approximately three-quarters of the reduction.

The entry first appeared on Líder Empresarial.