Organized Crime: A Parallel Economy (Part II)

The Size of the Criminal Economy

While it is difficult to formally determine the economic value represented by organized crime in Mexico, various studies and calculations suggest that the scale of criminal activity could be almost on par with the value of the national primary sector economy.

In an interview with Líder Empresarial, Jorge Paulo Saul Valero, an organized crime specialist at Integralia consultores, indicated that, based on 2025 data, this value could represent 3.5% of the national GDP.

If this estimate is taken as a reference, its economic dimension would be around 1 trillion 270 billion 847 million pesos, based on the national nominal GDP of 36.310 trillion pesos registered by INEGI in the fourth quarter of 2025.

This magnitude does not describe a marginal economy but rather a structure with a weight comparable to entire branches of national productive activity.

The scale becomes even more striking when contrasted with specific sectors. In 2024, the total supply of goods and services in the housing sector amounted to 2 trillion 943 billion 680 million pesos. This implies that 3.5% of GDP would be equivalent to 43.2% of the country’s entire housing market. If compared to the total housing GDP, which reached 3 trillion 580 billion 334 million pesos, the proportion would be 35.5%. In other words, we would be talking about a mass of resources approaching more than one-third of the total expanded value added of housing in Mexico, according to INEGI data.

The contrast is even sharper when compared to construction. INEGI reported that this sector generated 2 trillion 433 billion 36 million pesos in the fourth quarter of 2025. Under that reference, the 1.27 trillion pesos attributed to the criminal economy would be equivalent to 52.2% of the total value of national construction. That is, an amount similar to more than half of one of the most visible sectors for investment, public works, and infrastructure.

The comparison is also impactful when looking at the broader agricultural sector. Mexico’s primary activities, which include agriculture, livestock farming, fishing, and forestry, totaled 1 trillion 542 billion 557 million pesos. Therefore, the estimated amount for organized crime would be equivalent to 82.4% of that entire sector. Even against manufacturing, one of the country’s industrial engines, the figure remains enormous: manufacturing industries recorded 6 trillion 899 billion 296 million pesos, meaning the criminal economy would still represent 18.4% of that universe.

All of this compels an uncomfortable interpretation. If the 3.5% GDP estimate is close to reality, then organized crime can no longer be described merely as an underground or residual economy. Its scale would be large enough to distort prices, capture rents, infiltrate production chains, pressure costs, and compete with legal activities in entire regions of the country.

The post first appeared on Líder Empresarial.