Bajío Suppliers Facing New Rules of Origin: Who Gains Market Share?

The USMCA review placed rules of origin at the center of the 2026 industrial agenda. For Bajío suppliers, this process could alter purchasing decisions in sectors such as auto parts, plastics, metalworking, electronics, and tooling and molds.

In May 2026, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced that Mexico and the United States addressed automotive rules of origin, steel, aluminum, and economic security during their first bilateral round linked to the joint review. In June, both parties advanced discussions on rules of origin for certain industrial goods.

Why is the Bajío Region Part of the Conversation?

The region boasts a manufacturing base closely linked with North American

. Guanajuato, Querétaro, and San Luis Potosí are involved in transportation equipment activities and other industrial processes that could be affected by changes in origin criteria.

INEGI’s Exports by Federal Entity data allows us to quantify this productive exposure. In 2025, Mexico’s state exports reached $602.421 billion USD, with data disaggregated by entity, sector, and subsector.

The core issue is the origin of components integrated into final products. The USMCA already established stricter requirements for the automotive industry compared to the previous framework. The USTR acknowledges that the agreement incorporated new rules of origin designed to increase North American content.

Which Suppliers Could Find Opportunities?

If the review results in higher regional content requirements, some segments could receive new quotation requests or homologation processes:

Auto Parts: Components that can be integrated into Tier 1 and Tier 2 supply chains with documented origin.
Technical Plastics: Injection-molded parts and specialized components for industrial and automotive applications.
Metalworking: Machined parts, stamped components, castings, and precision parts.
Electronics: Components and assemblies, provided they meet technical and origin requirements.
Tooling and Molds: Processes related to new production lines, import substitution, and regional production maintenance.

The opportunity is not solely dependent on being located in Mexico. For a company to gain market share, it must meet demands for quality, cost, volume, delivery times, and origin documentation.

Three Scenarios for Bajío Suppliers

Scenario 1: Continuation of current rules. In this case, competition would remain focused on price, quality, logistics, and integration capabilities.

Scenario 2: Moderate tightening of regional content. This scenario could incentivize buyers to review parts of their supply chains and seek North American suppliers. Bajío companies with installed capacity and certified processes would be better positioned to compete, though without a guarantee of contract awards.

Scenario 3: Broader tightening, accompanied by increased controls on certain external inputs. The potential for substitution would grow, but so would the demands for traceability and compliance.

The ongoing discussion is already impacting industrial planning. Rules of origin are part of the bilateral negotiations for 2026, and the review leaves various possibilities open for production chains.

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