USMCA Review Not Imminent; Ebrard Predicts Decade of Annual Revisions

Marcelo Ebrard, Secretary of Economy, acknowledged that the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is unlikely to be a brief process, and that any agreements stemming from it will be long-term. He made these remarks during the forum “Building Opportunities,” organized by El Financiero Televisión.

When responding to audience questions about the negotiation timelines, the Secretary stated: “I believe that thinking about a quick conclusion to the agreement… is the ideal scenario. I don’t think that will happen,” and cited statements from the U.S. Trade Representative, Jameson Greer, who reportedly confirmed this stance.

Mexico’s Position at the Negotiation Table

Before addressing the process’s timeline, Ebrard outlined Mexico’s standing with its primary trading partner. The Secretary emphasized that “Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner. No one buys more from them than Mexico,” and pointed out that this constitutes “a real limitation that conditions the entire treaty review and the entire relationship with the United States.”

He added that Mexico purchases more from the United States than China, Japan, and Germany combined, and that within the new trade system organized by the Trump administration, Mexico holds the strongest relative position among competitors. This argument, the official specified, is the strategic starting point for the negotiation.

Key Dates in the Process

In his presentation, Ebrard announced three significant events for May: on the 22nd of that month, the trade agreement with the European Union would be signed; on the 27th, formal discussions with the United States for the USMCA review would commence; and during the same period, Mexico would dispatch trade missions to China and India.

The Secretary clarified that the May 27th discussions mark the formal stage, although he noted that informal exchanges with U.S. officials had already begun. The official framework for the process is July 1, 2026, the date by which all three countries must confirm their intention to continue with the treaty.

The Most Probable Scenario

When directly asked about the timeframe for concluding the agreement, Ebrard indicated an extended process: “We will likely move towards reviews that are not conclusive over the next 10 years, but rather that you have to keep discussing, I don’t know if annually or something like that.” He added: “I do not foresee a scenario of conclusion very, very soon.”

This scenario aligns with what analysts and major banks have identified as the most likely outcome. Researcher Ángeles Monserrat Gobea Franco from Universidad Panamericana has warned that if a long-term agreement is not reached, the USMCA would enter a phase of annual reviews until 2036. According to Gobea Franco, this would introduce constant uncertainty, hindering long-term planning and potentially impacting investor confidence.

The Secretary acknowledged that the objective in discussions with the United States is “to reduce the level of uncertainty,” without intending to negotiate everything at once.

What Mexico Seeks in the Negotiation

Ebrard described Mexico’s central objective in precise terms: “To have better trade treatment with the United States than any competitor we might have.” This premise, he explained, guides the strategy in a trade system organized around comparative disadvantages rather than product prices or quality.

Among the points Mexico aims to address in the review are safeguarding supply chains, reducing tariffs on steel and aluminum, and rules of origin in the automotive industry. Publicly, these three axes are what the Mexican government has put on the table.

Regarding labor issues, Ebrard believes it will not be a substantive element in this renegotiation, as the USMCA already includes complex rules of origin and an existing labor mechanism. He also dismissed the idea of Mexico accepting the imposition of a general wage as a negotiation condition.

Opportunities in the Process

Throughout his presentation, the Secretary offered a perspective that he himself described as “optimistic, reasonable.” He argued that changes in global supply chains and the trade policy of the Trump administration create opportunities for Mexico in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, electronics, and robotics.

As an example, he mentioned that Mexico exports approximately $17 billion in medical devices, a figure that could triple given the U.S.’s desire to reduce its dependence on Asia in this area.

In parallel to the USMCA negotiation, the Secretary highlighted the signing of the agreement with the European Union as an additional avenue for diversification. The stated goal is to double Mexican exports to Europe by 2030.

The USMCA Context

The treaty’s review is stipulated in Article 34.7, known as the “Sunset Clause,” which mandates periodic review. The USMCA, which entered into force on July 1, 2020, replacing NAFTA, has a term of 16 years with the possibility of extension for an additional 16 years until 2042 if the parties agree. If such consensus is not reached, annual reviews will proceed.

As of October 2025, Mexican exports to the United States exceeded $48.5 billion, with a record surplus of nearly $19 billion. These figures solidify Mexico’s position as the United States’ primary trading partner, representing 15.5% of total bilateral flows.

The importance of this relationship, as acknowledged by the Secretary himself at the forum, is also the strongest argument Mexico brings to the negotiation table.