These are the Economic Relations Between Mexico and Venezuela

, Mexico’s government and private sector are meticulously reviewing their commercial calculations. Although the South American country ceased to be one of Mexico’s top partners years ago, strategic ties exist in food security, real estate investment, and remittances flow that could be reconfigured after the forced regime change. Data from the Data México platform of the Federal Secretariat of Economy reveals that the trade relationship is in surplus for Mexico, but highly dependent on the export of staple grains and the reception of Venezuelan capital in tourist areas.

The Trade Balance: Mexico Feeds, Venezuela Sends Seeds

Prior to this morning’s military operation, Mexico maintained a trade surplus. In October 2025, the trade balance was 13.2 million U.S. dollars (USD million) in Mexico’s favor (exports of 17.5 USD million versus imports of 4.27 USD million).

Corn is the star product, vital for the Venezuelan diet. In 2024, exports of this grain totaled 39.7 USD million. By October 2025, the export basket had diversified towards Chemical Products (1.42 USD million). The states that sell the most to the South American nation are Mexico City (87.7 USD million annually), State of Mexico, and Nuevo León.

Contrary to popular belief about oil, Mexico’s primary purchase from Venezuela in 2024 was Oil Seeds and Oleaginous Fruits (13.6 USD million). Jalisco is the main buyer (15.6 USD million), followed by Nuevo León.

Venezuelan Capital Resides in the Caribbean

A revealing fact about capital flows is the destination of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

Venezuelans do not invest in factories in the north, but rather in tourism and services in the south. Historically (1999-2024), Quintana Roo has been the number one recipient of Venezuelan capital, accumulating 55.9 USD million, followed by Tabasco (49.8 USD million).

In 2024 alone, out of the 45.3 USD million that arrived from Venezuela, 6.48 USD million landed in the Mexican Caribbean and 5.35 USD million in Mexico City, suggesting strong participation in the real estate and services sector, possibly as a safeguard for capital against the political instability that preceded today’s invasion.

Remittances: A Lifeline from Mexico

Migration has inverted the flow of family aid. While in the third quarter of 2025 Mexico received just 629 thousand U.S. dollars from Venezuela, Mexico’s remittances to Venezuela totaled 4.21 USD million.

This correlates with the presence of a growing Venezuelan community: the 2020 census already recorded 33,826 immigrants (53.7% women), concentrated mainly in Mexico City (7,945), Baja California, and Nuevo León, who today live in uncertainty about the future of their families after the bombings in Caracas.

The Immediate Scenario

With the fall of Maduro and Washington’s intervention, a temporary disruption in commercial logistics is expected.

However, if the Trump administration stabilizes the Venezuelan market, exporters from Nuevo León and the State of Mexico could see an aggressive opening of that market, especially if the oil-rich nation’s purchasing power is reactivated.

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