Trump Announces Potential Trade Deal with Mexico: What Will Happen to Tariffs?

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, stated that his administration is close to reaching a trade agreement with Mexico that could significantly reduce the bilateral trade deficit, one of the primary reasons Washington has used to justify its tariff policy.

During a political rally in Park City, Kansas, Trump raised the possibility of bringing the difference between U.S. imports and exports with Mexico down to zero. Addressing his supporters and accompanied by Senator Roger Marshall, the president presented the potential understanding as progress for his economic strategy, focused on modifying international trade conditions in favor of the United States.

“What would you say if I told you [the deficit with Mexico] could go down to zero?” Trump asked during his speech, before insisting that his administration seeks to stop registering a negative trade balance with its southern neighbor.

However, a potential trade agreement does not, in itself, mean that the United States will eliminate the

on Mexican products. To determine the scope of the negotiations, it will be necessary to know their conditions, the sectors involved, and whether the understanding contemplates modifications to existing taxes or additional commitments to facilitate bilateral exchange.

What tariffs are at stake for Mexico and which sectors could benefit?

Trump’s announcement comes at a time when Mexico is seeking to reduce trade barriers affecting strategic industries. Therefore, any progress in negotiations could have consequences for companies dependent on the U.S. market.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. deficit in goods trade with Mexico reached $155,871 million between January and August 2026. This figure represents an annual increase of 21.2%, explaining why the issue holds a prominent place on Washington’s trade agenda.

In this scenario, the sectors that could benefit from a potential understanding are:

Automotive Industry and Auto Parts: Vehicle and component exports are fundamental to North American production integration. Tariff flexibility could reduce costs for manufacturers, suppliers, and logistics companies. Currently, vehicles that do not meet USMCA rules of origin face 25% tariffs, according to recent reports on negotiations.
Steel and Aluminum: These materials are among the main points of contention. The United States maintains levies of up to 50% on imports of these products. Mexico has requested a review of these measures, considering that they harm the competitiveness of its producers and shared industrial chains.
Manufacturing and Exports: Companies exporting machinery, electrical equipment, industrial products, and other goods to the United States could benefit from more predictable conditions.
Logistics and Supply Chains: Reduced border costs and greater regulatory certainty would benefit companies operating with lean inventories, scheduled deliveries, and suppliers distributed across both countries.
Investment and Industrial Relocation: If negotiations offer greater clarity on U.S. market access conditions, Mexico could strengthen its attractiveness as a regional manufacturing hub.

Mexico Negotiates Tariff Reductions While Defending Energy Sovereignty

In parallel with the U.S. president’s statements, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has held conversations with Trump to address trade and energy matters. Among the topics raised is the possibility of Mexico increasing its purchases of U.S. natural gas, as well as Washington’s request for U.S. companies to participate in exploration activities by Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex).

However, the Mexican government’s stance sets limits on energy matters. Sheinbaum has refused to open Pemex to the participation requested by the United States. Although she has indicated that there are cooperation mechanisms compatible with Mexican legislation, such as gas liquefaction operations linked with Sempra Energy in Ensenada, Baja California.

For his part, Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard has defended the review of steel and aluminum tariffs, considering the U.S. measures to be unjustified within the context of the bilateral relationship. Mexico hopes that the conversations will lead to more favorable conditions for its exports, although a confirmed timeline for resolving the differences does not yet exist.

What will happen to the tariffs? For now, the answer remains open. Trump’s announcement signals that negotiations are ongoing, but it does not constitute a confirmation that levies will be eliminated or reduced in the short term.