Crisis in the Skies: The Iran Conflict Threatens Global Jet Fuel Supply

The armed conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has driven aviation fuel prices to unprecedented levels, forcing airlines worldwide to cancel thousands of flights, reduce capacity, and increase airfares in what is shaping up to be the most expensive travel summer in decades. Nineteen of the world’s 20 largest airlines have already cut their flight schedules for May, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium. Europe and Asia are the most exposed regions. Approximately 75% of Europe’s jet fuel supply comes from the Middle East, and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has critically cut off that flow. The situation is so severe that the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a formal warning.

Jet Fuel Doubles: From $90 to $200 per Barrel in Weeks

The price of jet fuel has practically doubled since the conflict began, rising from approximately $85-$90 per barrel to between $150 and $200. This escalation represents a devastating financial blow for airlines, as fuel can account for up to a quarter of their operating costs. More concretely, the four major U.S. carriers—United, American, Delta, and Southwest—collectively spent nearly $100 million daily on fuel last year. That amount has increased dramatically. Delta warned that it could spend an additional $2 billion on fuel this year, despite owning its own refinery.

From Lufthansa to Spirit: No Airline Escapes the Cost Tsunami

The answer is resounding: virtually all airlines on the planet. Cirium revised its global capacity growth forecast for 2026, which was originally between 4% and 6%, and now projects it could fall by up to 3% in some scenarios. Among the most notable actions are the following: Lufthansa announced the cancellation of 20,000 short-haul flights between May and October, aiming to save 40,000 metric tons of fuel. In a statement, the German airline noted that “in total, 20,000 short-haul flights will be removed from the schedule until October, equivalent to approximately 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel, whose price has doubled since the start of the conflict with Iran.” KLM canceled 80 round-trip flights from Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport, arguing that these routes “are no longer financially viable to operate” due to the increase in kerosene prices. AirAsia CEO, Bo Lingam, explained in a press conference that the price of jet fuel rose from $90 per barrel before the war to $200, describing it as “the airline’s most serious challenge.” The company cut 10% of its flights and raised fares by 30% to 40%. United Airlines was not far behind. Its CEO, Scott Kirby, warned employees in an internal memo that if prices remain at these levels, “it would mean an additional $11 billion per year just in jet fuel” and specified that “in United’s best year, we earned less than $5 billion.” The airline has already cut its planned flight schedule by approximately 5% over the next six months.

Europe

In Europe, low-cost airline EasyJet warned of a half-year pre-tax loss of between £540 million and £560 million, which includes £25 million in additional fuel costs in March alone. Its CEO, Kenton Jarvis, indicated that European consumers should expect higher ticket prices towards the end of summer. Low-cost airlines are the most vulnerable. Spirit Airlines, which has already gone through two bankruptcy processes in the last 18 months, warned in its annual financial report in March that the increase in fuel costs would have an “immediate and substantial negative impact” on its results, jeopardizing its plan to emerge from bankruptcy. Fitch Ratings alerted that “financially weaker airlines that might struggle to absorb these combined pressures could default on their obligations and/or return aircraft prematurely.” In Nigeria, the situation was even more critical: the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) union threatened to suspend all domestic flight operations starting April 20 due to unsustainable fuel prices. The action was temporarily suspended after the intervention of the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, who convened the parties for a dialogue meeting.

No Relief Until July, If It Comes At All

The conflict in Iran has been disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most strategic maritime route for oil, for almost two months. Brent crude briefly surpassed $100 per barrel in early March before falling slightly when ceasefire talks began. Matt Smith, lead analyst for the Americas at energy consulting firm Kpler, stated that relief “will take until at least July” and warned that even that estimate might be optimistic. The problem is structural: even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened today, the crude oil and jet fuel trapped by the blockade would take weeks to reach customers in Europe and Asia, not to mention the time needed to resume production interrupted by the conflict. Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), warned that “by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe due to a lack of jet fuel” and added that this “is already happening in parts of Asia.” For his part, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, alerted that Europe had “perhaps about six weeks or so of jet fuel” available as of April 16.

Europe and Asia, in the Eye of the Storm

The United States, as the world’s largest oil producer and one of the main exporters of jet fuel, does not face the risk of running out of fuel. However, higher global prices do affect U.S. airlines, which are cutting low-margin routes and raising fares. Europe and Asia, on the other hand, depend massively on imported supply. More than 20% of the global seaborne jet fuel supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz last year, and over two-thirds of that volume was destined for Europe. South Korea is the world’s largest exporter of jet fuel, but much of the crude oil that Asian countries use to produce it comes from the Middle East, creating a chain of dependency. Walsh noted that Asian countries are starting to limit their jet fuel exports, which could exert more pressure on global market prices. In response to this threat, the European Commission announced a package of measures called AccelerateEU which includes optimizing jet fuel distribution among European Union countries to prevent shortages. In the United Kingdom, the Airlines UK trade body, representing British Airways, easyJet, Ryanair, Virgin, TUI, and Jet2, presented a list of urgent demands to the government, including suspending the emissions trading scheme, relaxing night flight restrictions, and eliminating the air passenger duty. However, the European Union’s Commissioner for Transport, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, denied that the continent was close to running out of fuel. “Any cancellations announced so far by European airlines are linked to the high cost of jet fuel, not to shortages,” he clarified.

A Strait Worth Billions: The Knot That Paralyzed the Skies

The closure or severe disruption of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the armed conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran is the root cause of the crisis. Kuwait and Bahrain, two of the world’s main jet fuel exporters, have their production trapped by the strait’s blockade. Kirby summarized it bluntly in an interview with Bloomberg: “It simply makes no sense to operate flights that are going to lose money and cannot cover the cost of fuel.” The impact extends beyond airlines: summer travelers should expect higher fares, especially in Europe and Asia. Last-minute flights to destinations like the Caribbean from the United States have already increased by 74% compared to the beginning of the month, and flights from the mainland to Hawaii rose by 21%, according to Deutsche Bank data. The Washington Post warned that the airline industry is in “triage mode” and recommended travelers book as soon as possible, especially for the first half of the peak season.