United States Decides Not to Renew USMCA: Which Jalisco Industries are at Risk?

Which Jalisco Industries Face the Greatest Risk?

Although bilateral trade will continue to operate under the current USMCA, various productive sectors could face pressure from the changes that the United States intends to introduce during the annual reviews. The industries with the highest exposure are those that depend on complex international supply chains or export a significant portion of their production to the United States.

1. Automotive and Auto Parts Industry

The automotive sector appears to be one of the most vulnerable. Key risks include:

• Potential increase in regional content requirements.
• A higher mandatory percentage of components manufactured in the United States.
• Penalties for the use of auto parts originating from Asia.
• Increased costs for manufacturers located in Mexico.

Companies will need to carefully review the integration of their supply chains to avoid losing preferential tariff treatment under the treaty.

2. Steel and Aluminum

Another sensitive sector corresponds to the metallurgical industry. The main threats include:

• Potential imposition of new tariffs.
• Stricter rules on the origin of steel and aluminum.
• Increased regulatory requirements.
• Greater pressure to demonstrate the traceability of inputs.

This scenario could affect both producers and manufacturing companies that use these materials in their processes.

3. Electronics and High-Technology Industry

Jalisco is considered one of the main technology hubs in Latin America. The electronics industry represents one of the state’s economic engines, with exports exceeding $52 billion dollars. However, it also faces significant challenges. The United States considers this sector strategic from a national security perspective, thus seeking to limit dependence on components from Asia. This would particularly impact companies engaged in the assembly of:

• Computers.
• Servers.
• Medical equipment.
• Smartphones.
• Electronic components.

If Washington tightens rules of origin, numerous manufacturers would have to replace international suppliers or completely modify their production processes.

4. Agri-Food and Beverage Sector

Although it often receives less attention, the agri-food sector also faces significant risks. These include:

• Sanitary barriers.
• Phytosanitary restrictions.
• Seasonal trade measures.
• Increased regulatory requirements.

Products that could face greater obstacles include:

• Berries.
• Avocado.
• Tequila.
• Processed products.
• High value-added foods.

Furthermore, Jalisco’s agro-industry was already experiencing some trade challenges even before the announcement made by the United States.

Uncertainty Weighs Heavier Than Non-Renewal

One of the main messages conveyed by the industrial sector is that the real problem lies not in the continuity of the treaty, but in the permanent uncertainty that annual reviews would generate. The possibility of constantly modifying trade rules could lead to:

• Postponement of investments.
• Greater caution from foreign companies.
• Increased costs for regulatory compliance.
• Reduced certainty for long-term manufacturing projects.

Antonio Lancaster also expressed concern about the lack of clarity in the U.S. stance. From a business perspective, the United States has expressed various dissatisfactions regarding the treaty’s functioning; however, during negotiation sessions, it has not precisely defined the modifications it intends to implement. This situation makes it difficult for companies to prepare adaptation strategies with sufficient advance notice.

How Can Jalisco Companies Prepare?

Facing a scenario where USMCA reviews could become an annual process, specialists believe that companies must strengthen their commercial strategies as soon as possible. Among the main recommended actions are:

Audit the Origin of All Inputs

Companies must accurately identify the country of origin for each component used in their products. This will allow them to determine which materials might fail to comply with future rules of origin.

Substitute Asian Suppliers

Where feasible, companies should increase their purchase of domestic or North American inputs. This would reduce the risk of losing preferential tariff treatment.

Strengthen Local Supply Chains

Developing Mexican suppliers represents an opportunity to increase regional content and improve competitiveness. In addition to reducing external dependence, this strategy would strengthen production chains established in Jalisco.

Diversify International Markets

Another priority is to expand commercial presence beyond the United States. Exploring opportunities in Europe, Asia, South America, or the Middle East would allow for reduced dependence on the U.S. market.

Legally Secure Contracts

Specialists recommend that companies work with legal advisors, public notaries, and foreign trade experts to review contracts, commercial clauses, and risks arising from potential treaty modifications.

Jalisco Maintains Competitive Advantages Despite the New USMCA Scenario

Despite the context of uncertainty, the industrial sector insists that Jalisco retains significant strengths. Its logistics infrastructure, manufacturing specialization, growth in the technology sector, and integration of regional chains continue to position it as one of the country’s main economic drivers.

Furthermore, the fact that the USMCA remains in effect provides sufficient time for companies and governments to adapt their strategies as negotiations progress. For now, the biggest challenge is not the disappearance of the trade agreement, but learning to operate in an environment where rules could be reviewed more frequently.

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