How Cold Front 12 Will Impact Mexico: States to Experience Temperatures as Low as -5ºC

Cold Front Number 12 has commenced its trajectory along the Gulf of Mexico coastline. According to the National Coordination of Civil Protection (CNPC) and the National Meteorological Service (SMN), this system will remain active until Wednesday, November 5th, triggering a drop in temperatures, intense rainfall, winds exceeding 80 km/h, and a risk of frost in high-altitude areas of northern and central Mexico. Furthermore, entered with intensity earlier this week, propelled by a polar air mass that will extend over the northeast, east, center, and southeast of the country. Over the next three days, the heaviest rains will be concentrated in Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Puebla, and Tabasco, while in states of the Northern Plateau and Central Plateau—such as Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo, and the State of Mexico—temperatures could plummet to -5°C in mountainous regions.

The SMN elaborated that the “Norte” event, characterized by cold and humid winds from the Gulf, will persist with gusts between 70 and 80 km/h along the coasts of Veracruz and Tamaulipas, as well as in the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec. These conditions will be accompanied by waves up to 3.5 meters, prompting authorities to urge extreme caution in ports and coastal communities.

“The associated cold air mass will maintain very cold to frigid conditions at dawn with possible frosts, especially in the high-altitude regions of the north and center of the country,” the SMN’s technical report indicated.

The system’s impact will be widespread, but some states will record the most severe conditions, both due to low temperatures and the accumulation of rain and wind:

• Veracruz: Very heavy rains in the regions of Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca, with wind gusts up to 80 km/h.
• Oaxaca: Intense “Norte” event in the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec; waves up to 3.5 meters.
• Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo: Strong localized rains, mainly on Tuesday and Wednesday.
• Durango, Zacatecas, Chihuahua, and San Luis Potosí: Dawns with minimum temperatures between -5 and 0°C.

The system will remain stationary over the Yucatan Peninsula, interacting with a polar trough and jet streams.

• Strong rains are forecast for Veracruz (Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca), Oaxaca (east), Chiapas (northwest), and Tabasco (west).
• Winds of 50 to 70 km/h with waves up to 3.5 meters in the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec.
• Minimum temperatures of -5 to 0°C in the mountain ranges of Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, and the State of Mexico.

The front will remain stationary northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula, while a low-pressure trough will generate strong localized rains in Quintana Roo and showers in Campeche and Yucatán.

• The “Norte” event will persist with gusts of 70 to 80 km/h in Oaxaca and Chiapas, along with high waves in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
• In the northern and central mountain ranges, cold to very cold conditions will continue with minimum temperatures down to -5°C.
• Rains will gradually diminish towards the night, allowing for a moderate increase in daytime temperatures.

The front will persist with stationary characteristics northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula, causing very heavy rains in Yucatán and Quintana Roo, in addition to precipitation in Chiapas, Tabasco, and Campeche.

• A slight thermal recovery is anticipated in the center of the country, but dawn will remain frigid in the Altiplano region.

The National Coordination of Civil Protection (CNPC) issued a call to the public to exercise extreme caution and prevent incidents during the days of greatest impact. Key preventive measures include:

• Prepare an emergency kit with important documents, a flashlight, a radio, water, and non-perishable food.
• Avoid traveling on rural roads or unstable areas: the terrain can become dangerous.
• Seek shelter in safe places if you are outdoors and a thunderstorm begins.
• Avoid contact with stagnant water, which can be a source of infection or a breeding ground for mosquitoes.
• Stay informed through official sources such as the CNPC, SMN, and local media.

“Prevention is key to reducing risks. Given the drop in temperatures and continuous rainfall, it is recommended to stay sheltered, especially in vulnerable communities,” Civil Protection emphasized in its statement.