Lula Wins Brazilian Elections: What is the Connection with Sheinbaum?

Claudia Sheinbaum’s congratulations to Lula da Silva on his victory in Brazil were accompanied by an agenda to resume projects between Pemex and Petrobras. In this regard, the President of Mexico announced that she would hold a telephone conversation with the Brazilian leader following his victory in the presidential elections on Sunday, October 25, 2026. It is worth noting that the relationship between Lula and Sheinbaum combines political affinity, presidential encounters, and cooperation agreements. Furthermore, their agenda encompasses energy, trade, health, and innovation, with signed instruments and follow-up work between institutions of both countries.

How Did Lula Win the 2026 Brazilian Elections?

The Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (TSE) confirmed the re-election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, candidate for the Workers’ Party, with 64,256,232 votes, equivalent to 51.79% of the valid ballots. His opponent, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, obtained 59,826,041 votes, corresponding to 48.21%. With this result, Lula will serve a fourth presidential term, following his electoral victories in 2002, 2006, and 2022. According to the Brazilian Senate Agency, the inauguration is scheduled for January 5, 2027.

What Did Sheinbaum Say About Lula’s Victory in Brazil?

During her press conference on October 26, Sheinbaum celebrated the outcome and described it as “a breath of fresh air for Latin America and the Caribbean.” She also acknowledged the political closeness between the two administrations: “It is an aligned government,” she stated, while noting that Mexico maintains relations with governments of different ideological orientations. According to EFE’s coverage, the President announced that she would speak with Lula that Monday at 12:00 PM Central Mexico time to congratulate him and resume joint projects. Among these, she mentioned cooperation between the two countries’ oil companies. She also left open the possibility of visiting Brazil, without setting a date.

Lula and Sheinbaum: From Inauguration to Bilateral Cooperation

The encounters between the two leaders have precedents since the beginning of the Mexican administration. Lula attended Sheinbaum’s inauguration on October 1, 2024, along with other heads of state from Latin America. Subsequently, in November of that year, they coincided during the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro. At that forum, the Mexican President supported the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty, promoted by Brazil. The agenda continued through visits by officials. In August 2025, during the visit of Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin to Mexico, cooperation instruments in biofuels and economic promotion were signed, with the participation of Mexican agencies and the Brazilian agency ApexBrasil. Furthermore, on March 9, 2026, Lula and Sheinbaum spoke by phone about strengthening economic relations, particularly in energy. The Planalto Palace reported that the Brazilian President reiterated the invitation for his counterpart to visit Brazil and proposed organizing a business meeting. Institutional follow-up included another meeting on August 6, 2026, when Foreign Ministers Roberto Velasco and Mauro Vieira led the VI Meeting of the Mexico-Brazil Binational Commission in Brasilia.

Pemex and Petrobras: What Does the Energy Agreement Encompass?

One of the instruments of this agenda was signed on June 23, 2026, when Pemex and Petrobras signed a memorandum of understanding in Rio de Janeiro. According to information published by Petrobras, the document includes evaluating cooperation opportunities in:

Exploration and Production: Deep and ultra-deep waters, including the Gulf of Mexico, as well as revitalization of mature fields.
Industrial Processes: Refining, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and gas processing.
Technology and Environmental Performance: Knowledge exchange, energy efficiency, emissions reduction, and carbon capture.

The memorandum has an initial validity of two years, renewable. However, Petrobras states that it does not represent a binding investment commitment nor does it create a partnership, consortium, or joint venture. Each opportunity requires negotiations, feasibility analyses, authorizations, and specific instruments. In August, the declaration from the Binational Commission documented meetings between both companies to advance its implementation. On the other hand, the cooperation also faced criticism. On June 24, organizations such as CEMDA, Greenpeace Mexico, and Oceana pointed out that pursuing deepwater oil projects poses environmental risks to the Gulf and prolongs dependence on fossil fuels.

Trade, Health, and Technology in the Mexico-Brazil Relationship

Currently, the economic relationship between the two countries registered a trade exchange of 13.9 billion dollars in 2025, according to the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. For its part, Data Mexico, a platform of the Ministry of Economy, reports the following movements for August 2026:

Indicator	Amount
Mexico’s Exports to Brazil	$477 million
Mexican Imports from Brazil	$1.164 billion
Mexico’s Trade Balance with Brazil	Deficit of $687 million

In that month, the main Mexican export was parts and accessories for motor vehicles, worth $68.8 million. Conversely, purchases of non-alloy iron or steel semi-finished products, worth $175 million, stood out. Additionally, at the binational meeting in August, a scientific memorandum was signed that includes artificial intelligence, supercomputing, semiconductors, and quantum technologies. Health collaboration between institutions like Cofepris and Anvisa was also reviewed.

What Do Lula in Brazil and Sheinbaum Have Pending?

Among the follow-up matters are the definition of specific energy projects and the work to expand and modernize Economic Complementarity Agreements 53 and 55, addressed by the foreign ministries in August. In the case of Pemex and Petrobras, future projects will need to specify their technical, financial, and operational conditions through additional instruments, according to the scope of the memorandum signed in June. Lastly, Mexico expressed interest in hosting the VII Meeting of the Mexico-Brazil Binational Commission in 2028, with a date to be agreed upon by both governments.