Companies in Nuevo León Anticipate 2026 Recession: Where Will They Invest?

In an environment of high economic uncertainty, 73% of senior management in Nuevo León considers strengthening confidence in the rule of law a priority, while 87% anticipate stagnation or recession in 2026. Nevertheless, 71% foresee new investments focused on digital transformation and process automation, according to the Mexico Senior Management Perspectives 2026 study by KPMG Mexico.

How is Nuevo León’s Senior Management Facing a Recessionary Environment?

The study, in its 21st edition, reflects a cautious yet strategic stance. Despite the complex economic outlook, companies are not halting operations or growth plans.

In terms of projection:

29% estimate their sales will grow between 1% and 5% in 2026.
31% maintain the same growth range for the 2027-2029 period.
40% anticipate more dynamic increases, between 6% and 10% annually in those years.

Given this scenario, leaders prioritize three strategies:

Control costs and expenses
Generate new revenue streams
Expand the offering of products and services

These decisions reveal financial discipline and a focus on profitability. They also reflect a medium-term vision.

Where Will New Investments Be Concentrated in 2026?

In turn, 54% of senior management will seek to access new markets. Additionally, 52% will develop innovative products and services to respond to new needs. Furthermore, 44% will focus on reviewing the

and other trade agreements. This data gains relevance given the global geopolitical recomposition. Nevertheless, executives face specific challenges. 62% identify regulatory uncertainty as the main obstacle. Additionally, 45% point to U.S. trade policy as a critical factor. The difficulty in attracting and retaining talent concerns 37%, while insecurity impacts another 37%. In response, leaders are adopting flexible and sustainable strategies.

What Does Tax Compliance Reveal About Business Maturity?

63% of organizations in Nuevo León have faced formal tax compliance processes, compared to 49% nationally. Furthermore, 73% report that administrative complexity affects their timely compliance. However, only 3% have automated tax compliance processes, compared to 11% nationwide. Even more significantly, 27% have not incorporated technological solutions in the tax area. This data highlights a digital gap in the tax function. Therefore, KPMG recommends accelerating investment in technology and specialized talent.

Where Are Nuevo León Companies Expanding?

Nationally, 46% plan to expand operations. The main destinations are:

Nuevo León (54%)
Mexico City (31%)
Coahuila and

(27%)

State of Mexico (23%) Internationally, 18% consider expanding their presence. The markets of greatest interest are:
United States (60%)
Brazil and Canada (30%)
Dominican Republic and India (20%) Geographic location drives 62% of national expansion decisions, while logistical advantages motivate 50% of international expansion.

What Role Do Talent and Innovation Play?

98% of companies prioritize a purpose-driven strategic culture to retain talent. Additionally, 48% consider a competitive economic offer key, while another 48% opt for training and labor flexibility. Regarding innovation, 34% report having structured and formal processes. Furthermore, 43% will allocate between 2% and 5% of their revenues to innovation in 2026. The most relevant technologies for companies are:

Advanced applications (57%)
Cloud services (55%)
Data & analytics (51%) These tools strengthen operational efficiency and enable more adaptable growth.

What Are the Most Pressing Risks for 2026?

Finally, looking ahead to 2026, the main identified risks are:

Insecurity and lack of rule of law (60%)
New regulations (59%)
Cyberattacks (55%)
Talent loss (55%) Regarding ESG matters, 79% point to water scarcity as a priority risk. Furthermore, 98% consider business ethics and best labor practices essential. Nevertheless, only 32% have a mature ESG management plan. This data highlights opportunities to strengthen sustainability and trust. KPMG surveyed over 500 business leaders between October and December 2025. The study covered sectors such as financial services, manufacturing, and industry. In conclusion, senior management in Nuevo León recognizes a challenging environment for 2026. However, they are committed to digitalization, innovation, and strategic expansion. This combination positions the entity as a resilient hub amidst constant disruption.