Formal Employment in Guanajuato 2025: Balance, Gaps, and Goals according to México ¿Cómo Vamos?

The annual employment report by México ¿Cómo Vamos? places Guanajuato in a ‘red light’ status for failing to meet its formal job creation target. The national trend indicated a weak year, and the state mirrored this slowdown in several segments of 2025. The diagnosis necessitates specific actions in manufacturing, training, and formalization.

The Year in Figures: Levels, Trends, and Monthly Snapshots

Guanajuato began 2025 with 1,116,122 formal workers registered with the IMSS. This figure represented a monthly increase of 5,637 positions and an annual gain of +19,020 jobs compared to January 2024. The starting point was robust relative to the close of 2024.

By mid-year, the labor base reached 1,122,561 positions in May. The annualized increase was 0.7%. However, performance fell short of México ¿Cómo Vamos?’s state target for that period.

In December, seasonal adjustments significantly impacted the state. Guanajuato lost 19,518 jobs that month, consistent with the national year-end contraction. Nevertheless, Guanajuato remained among the

in terms of labor base size.

State Goals: Where Shortfalls Occurred and Why It Matters

As of May, MCV’s cumulative target called for 26,625 new jobs. Guanajuato added 12,726. Consequently, the ‘red light’ status persisted for the entity. This signal indicates lags in hiring dynamics.

Nationally, MCV closed 2025 with 278,697 net positions created. This result was far below the annual goal of 1.2 million. This methodological framework explains why Guanajuato’s indicator did not change color.

Manufacturing and Strategic Sectors: Focus of Weakness

Goal 3 of Plan México aimed for an additional 1.5 million jobs in manufacturing and strategic sectors. The year concluded with –127,200 net positions in manufacturing industries. Manufacturing states, such as Guanajuato, felt the impact of this decline.

The reduced dynamism correlated with 13 consecutive months of annual decline in gross fixed investment and a –2.4% decrease in employers affiliated with IMSS. Less investment and fewer employers imply reduced hiring capacity.

Gender Gaps: The Pending Item on the Labor Agenda

Nationally, for every 100 men with formal employment, there are 68 women. This disparity is replicated across several entities and conditions progress towards equitable goals. Guanajuato shows similar figures with 67.16 women for every 100 men. Therefore, specific policies are needed to narrow these gaps.

MCV warns that the ‘Gender Indicator’ is in red. In 2025, 112,704 new positions were for women, and 165,993 were for men nationwide. Parity was not achieved.

December and the Seasonal Pattern: Interpreting the Decline

December typically shows contractions due to reduced hiring and contract terminations. In 2025, Mexico lost 320,692 positions that month. Guanajuato mirrored this cycle with –19,518 jobs. This phenomenon is recurrent but demands improved talent planning.

The national decline was less pronounced than in 2024 and 2023, though still significant. The challenge is to mitigate seasonality with retention programs and transition schemes between projects.

What’s Next for Guanajuato in 2026?

Prioritize high-value linkages in the automotive, electrical-electronic, and logistics sectors. Additionally, accelerate skills certification, with a focus on women and youth. These steps can improve the ‘red light’ indicator in the short term.

Furthermore, coordinate formalization programs with business chambers. The goal is to expand the employer base and reduce the informal sector gap that limits sustainable growth of formal employment.

The article

first appeared in Líder Empresarial.