The Weight of the Latino Vote in Usa Elections 2024

For these presidential elections in the United States 2024, the vote of Latinos will be crucial. Mainly because it is the electorate that has grown the most since 2020 in the country.

In a close election like this, analysts say that Latinos could be the ones who end up tipping the balance.

This parity is reflected in the latest polls between the Democrat Kamala Harris

and the Republican Donald Trump

According to the poll average from Five ThirtyEight, Harris leads with a narrow margin of 1.3 percentage points, reaching 48.1% support. Compared to 46.8% for Trump.

This slight lead has been a point of tension, as the difference has fluctuated considerably in recent weeks, when Trump managed to narrow the gap that, at the end of August, was almost four points.

What Is the Weight of the Latino Vote in Usa Elections 2024?2097

According to the Pew Research Center, by 2024 Latinos will represent almost 15% of the US electorate, with more than 36 million people eligible to vote. That is, this represents an increase of 12% compared to the 2020 elections.

As a relevant fact, in 2020, the participation of Hispanic voters nationwide was 53.7% among those eligible to vote. According to a study by Professor Laird Bergad of the City University of New York (CUNY).

Now, the vast majority of Latinos live in states like California, dominated by Democrats, or Texas, with a greater presence of Republicans.

Consequently, the Latino vote of those who live in states with uncertain electoral trends, or “swing” states, such as Arizona, Nevada, or Pennsylvania, can define the presidency.

States with the Largest Latino Community and Political Affinity

As of 2024, these are the entities in the United States with the highest percentage of the Latino community and their political affinity in these 2024 elections:

New Mexico (49.20%): Swing, here we explain the term

Texas (39.44%): Republican
California (39.09%): Democrat
Arizona (31.51%): Swing
Nevada (28.90%): Swing

Latino Vote 2024: Figures That Could Anticipate the Results

Now, according to CNN en Español, in Arizona, Biden won in 2020 by 10,457 votes. According to a study by the Institute of Politics at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). This year there are about 1.3 million Hispanics eligible to vote in Arizona.

Additionally, In Nevada, Trump lost by 33,596 votes in 2020, that is, 56% of the vote in that state was for Biden and 37% for Trump, according to a study by Americas Society/Council of the Americas (AS-COA).

On the other hand, the survey conducted by SSRS, published by CNN, reveals an advantage that Democrats have maintained for decades among the Latino vote of 15% of the electorate. 54% for Kamala Harris and 37% for Trump, that is, a 17-point advantage. Although with a margin of error of 9.9%, which reflects how tight the process is.

Latino Vote in the Usa 2024: Who Is Who in the Support of the Voters?4569

ActiVote

highlights the preferences of voters in the upcoming United States 2024 presidential election:

On the one hand, Trump leads among men, rural voters, those over 50, whites, and maintains a slight advantage among independents.

While the Deputy Head of State, Kamala Harris, leads among women, urban voters, young people (between 18 and 49 years old), the Latino community and people of African descent.