Trump and USMCA: The Call That Reshapes Mexico
A recent call between Trump and Sheinbaum puts USMCA, security, and trade at the forefront, signaling key challenges and opportunities for Mexico ahead of the 2026 review.
In recent days, Trump, the USMCA, Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico, and the United States have once again taken center stage. A
and places security, trade, and investment on the same agenda. This article explains the context, the USMCA timeline, hard data on bilateral dependency, key concerns for the private sector, and geopolitical factors contributing to increased volatility.
In Mexico, the market grasped the message immediately. Trump, the USMCA, Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico, and the United States re-entered the same conversation, now with explicit pressure on security and an impending trade review. The call on January 12, 2026, opened a political channel that also serves as a barometer for investment and exports.
In this space, we provide an overview and analysis of these events, as well as their impact on investment and supply chains.
Sheinbaum and Trump on the Phone, with Sovereignty on the Table
The Mexican government framed the call as an effort to organize bilateral dialogue. Claudia Sheinbaum was accompanied by Foreign Minister Juan Ramón de la Fuente and Omar García Harfuch, in a format that channeled the discussion through institutional avenues. This detail was significant for the private sector, as it reduces the potential for impulsive short-term decisions.
The geopolitical backdrop heightened tensions. International media reported the capture of Nicolás Maduro following a U.S. operation on January 3, 2026, with an immediate
This episode reignited the debate about the true scope of Washington’s foreign policy in Latin America.
Concurrently, Trump escalated his rhetoric on television. In a conversation with Sean Hannity, he stated: “The cartels are running Mexico… We are gonna start now hitting, uh, land with regard to the cartels.”
This statement escalated the cost of uncertainty. It was not merely a diplomatic exchange. The market invariably translates such signals into operational risks: logistics, insurance, compliance, reputation, and business continuity.
Border Security as a Political Lever and Economic Risk
The United States and Mexico are already preparing technical meetings and a high-level summit in Washington to discuss security. The agenda focuses on combating fentanyl, arms trafficking, and organized crime. While such formal channels reduce noise, they do not eliminate the narrative clash when Trump floats the idea of “on-the-ground” actions in Mexico.
Sheinbaum, for her part, has responded with a message of cooperation under specific conditions. Recent reports indicate that she has defended the principle of mutual respect and highlighted Mexico’s internal security achievements to counter the interventionist narrative. In the subsequent days, the pressure persisted, and the president insisted that Mexico would not accept foreign troops.
For companies with cross-border supply chains, the critical point extends beyond “whether an incursion will occur.” The collateral effects are significant: increased customs scrutiny, inspections, changes in crossing protocols, controls on transporters, and new compliance requirements for suppliers.
USMCA 2026 as an Anchor and a Battlefield
The USMCA functions as the invisible infrastructure of regional trade. Therefore, the call between Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum was also interpreted as an economic signal. In their exchange, the conversation included trade and investment.
Concurrently, the timeline is pressing. Marcelo Ebrard stated that the treaty review is already underway and must conclude by July 1 (within the framework of the joint review scheduled for 2026).
The review clause is significant because it opens concrete scenarios. Business organizations have explained that if all three countries ratify continuity, the agreement can be extended for 16 years. If consensus is not reached, the treaty will undergo annual reviews until 2036.
Hard Data on Trade Dependence: The Scale of the Risk
When political rhetoric escalates, trade bears the initial cost. Mexico maintains an asymmetric trade relationship with the United States, and the data confirms this.
México, ¿Cómo Vamos? estimates that 84% of Mexican exports (non-oil goods) go to the United States. This figure explains why every statement regarding the USMCA impacts suppliers, employment, and the exchange rate.
This leverage is felt across industries. In automotive, electronics, aerospace, agribusiness, and medical devices, regional integration defines margins and timelines. Furthermore, the USMCA not only lowers tariffs; it also establishes rules of origin, labor standards, and dispute resolution mechanisms.
Herein lies a secondary interpretation. When Trump downplays the agreement, he is not describing the logistical reality. Trump uses rhetoric as a negotiation tool. This approach compels businesses to plan with various scenarios in mind.
Record FDI and Mixed Signals: Investment Arrives, Caution Grows
Mexico closed 2025 with a figure the government presented as a record. The Ministry of Economy reported $40,906 million in accumulated FDI by the third quarter. It also reported year-on-year growth and a surge in
This data provides momentum to the economic discourse. However, it also raises business questions. When capital flows in but geopolitics become strained, corporate boards demand greater clarity: contracts, energy, water, permits, and security. At this juncture, the USMCA acts as an umbrella, but it doesn’t cover every aspect.
Investors typically consider two layers. The first layer measures market access, where the USMCA provides an advantage. The second layer measures political friction, where Trump, security, and the bilateral tone carry weight.
Trump’s USMCA Rhetoric and Supply Chain Impact
in some recent messages. This type of statement generates headlines but does not dismantle plants or supply routes in a week. Nevertheless, it does alter marginal decisions: where to expand capacity, how much inventory to maintain, and which suppliers to certify first.
In the automotive industry, trilateral integration operates by design. The industry distributes processes and components among the three countries. An abrupt rupture would escalate costs and timelines. Therefore, even when political pressure mounts, companies seek continuity pathways.
This does not eliminate a real risk: stricter rules of origin or more frequent revisions. Such a scenario increases compliance and auditing costs. Furthermore, it puts pressure on SME suppliers already operating with narrow margins.
The Legal and Constitutional Cost of Unilateral Action
The public debate was not confined to politics. In Mexico, the discussion shifted to the legal question: what would permit or prevent
Media outlets have explained that the Mexican constitutional framework reserves the authorization for foreign troops to enter the country to the Senate. This safeguard defines the formal limit and raises the threshold for direct action.
The private sector observes another facet: even if unilateral action conflicts with Mexican law, the mere threat already shifts variables. Insurance premiums rise. Corporate travel protocols change. Transportation verifications become stricter. Compliance costs increase.
Greenland and the Logic of Resources
To understand Trump’s style, it is useful to examine a seemingly distant but instructive topic: Greenland. Trump’s interest in Greenland highlights strategic resources and geopolitical routes. This approach suggests that Trump prioritizes control of critical assets and leverage.
The same logic applies to North America. In trade, critical assets include supply chains, minerals, energy, and advanced manufacturing. In security, they involve borders, flows, and territorial control. When Trump intertwines these two spheres, he presses for advantages in USMCA negotiations.
What Companies in Mexico Are Monitoring Towards July 2026
Public discourse is filled with declarations. However, companies typically track concrete indicators. These three sections are sufficient for an executive dashboard: -Political and operational risk: Washington’s tone, bilateral meetings, security announcements, changes in border inspections. -USMCA trajectory: calendar progress towards July 1, 2026, signals regarding dispute resolution and rules of origin. -Investment and confidence: FDI announcements, reinvestment, paused projects, and Ministry of Economy statements on flows. $40,906 million marks the starting point.
This framework does not predict outcomes. It does help organize decisions. It also helps avoid the classic mistake: reacting solely to headlines.
Conclusion: Business Amidst Pressure, Data, and Pragmatism
In 2026, Mexico operates in an arena where security and trade are no longer separate. The call between Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed this intertwining. The USMCA remains an anchor but also functions as a negotiation lever. The United States will continue to be a central partner, as the majority of Mexican exports depend on this market.
For the private sector, the challenge is not to guess the next tweet or statement. The challenge is to translate political signals into operational plans: compliance, alternative suppliers, inventory management, financial coverage, and risk protocols. In this translation, hard data prevails. And the clock towards July 2026 is already ticking.
The post
first appeared on Líder Empresarial.
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