Iran Conflict: How Would a Global Oil Shock Impact Mexico and Aguascalientes?

event. According to the analysis by Lic. Edgar Uriel Dávila Araiza from the College of Economists in Aguascalientes, we are facing a potential systemic energy supply shock capable of disrupting markets, fueling inflation, and altering investment decisions leading up to 2026.

The Strait of Hormuz: The World’s Most Critical Energy Chokepoint

The flashpoint of the conflict is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s energy flows. According to International Energy Agency estimates: -20 million barrels of oil per day—approximately 20% of global consumption—transit through this route. -Around 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade also passes through this route. -The region accounts for 27% of global crude oil production.

Any disruption—even without a formal closure—could trigger an immediate supply crisis. The specialist warns that the mere perception of insecurity already drives up insurance premiums for oil tankers, which could de facto paralyze maritime traffic and constrict global supply.

This is not merely a military conflict; it represents a structural risk to the planet’s energy balance.

Mexico Facing the Shock: Three Channels of Economic Transmission

The impact on Mexico would primarily occur through three channels:

1. Oil Channel: Limited Benefit

An increase in international crude oil prices would raise the value of Mexico’s oil blend and could boost public revenues. However, Mexico is no longer the major net exporter it was in past decades, so the positive effect would be partial and limited.

2. Inflationary Channel: The Most Immediate Risk

Rising gasoline prices would increase transportation and logistics costs, quickly passing on to the prices of goods and services. This effect would be negative and immediate, putting upward pressure on inflation and reducing purchasing power.

3. Financial Channel: Exchange Rate Volatility and Higher Interest Rates

An uncertain international environment increases risk aversion. This translates into: -Pressure on the exchange rate. -Increases in interest rates. -Higher costs for debt and imports.

The result: greater financial vulnerability for governments, businesses, and consumers.

Aguascalientes: Pressure on Industrial Competitiveness

Locally, the impact would be particularly sensitive due to the state’s manufacturing and export profile.

Logistics and Energy Costs

The increase in diesel prices would directly impact: -Freight transport. -Parcel and logistics services. -Business profit margins.

Furthermore, rising costs for energy-intensive inputs—plastics, chemicals, and packaging materials—would put pressure on production costs.

Exchange Rate and Uncertainty

Exchange rate volatility would complicate the import of components and financial planning, hindering investments and elevating operational risks.

Collectively, these factors imply higher costs and reduced certainty, which are key elements for competitiveness against other markets.

The Direct Hit to the Wallet: How Families Are Affected

The social impact would be immediate, particularly on family spending: -35% allocated to food and beverages. -20% to transportation. -18% to housing. -12% to education and recreation. -5% to healthcare. -5% to clothing.

With an average monthly income of 11,240 pesos, any sustained increase in fuel prices creates a dual effect: it raises the cost of daily commuting and increases grocery expenses.

Food and transportation account for more than half of the family budget, meaning energy inflation quickly translates into social pressure.

Three Possible Scenarios for the Conflict and Their Implications

The specialist outlines three scenarios:

1. Contained Conflict (Low Probability)

-Duration: days or weeks. -Impact limited to temporary episodes of market and energy volatility.

2. Prolonged Regional War (High Probability)

-Duration: weeks to months. -Deeper consequences: -Sustained inflation. -Volatile exchange rate. -Pressure on businesses and consumers.

3. Chaotic Regime Change (Medium-High Probability)

-Duration: months to years. -Would imply a geopolitical realignment with potential pressures on agreements like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), in addition to structural effects on investment and trade.

Sectoral Impact in Aguascalientes: Who Resists and Who Does Not

The effect would be differentiated in Aguascalientes: -Families: high and immediate impact. -Automotive cluster: medium-high impact due to energy costs and commercial uncertainty. -Investment attraction: medium impact, as projects could be delayed. -Local commerce: medium impact due to reduced consumption. -Agroindustry: relatively low impact. -Technological services and “mentefactura” (knowledge-based manufacturing/innovation): very low impact, due to lower energy dependence.

Productive diversification plays a key role here.

Concern or Panic? Mexico’s Resilience Capacity

Concern is valid: -Direct impact on fuels and food. -Pressure on industrial competitiveness. -Reduced oil compensation capacity compared to the past. -Risk of investment delays.

However, panic is not justified.

Today, Mexico possesses a more diversified economy and a more robust productive structure than in previous crises. Aguascalientes is progressing towards higher value-added sectors, such as knowledge-based manufacturing and innovation, and there is a clear strategy towards electromobility and sustainability.

The conflict could represent a period of volatility and adjustment, but also a test of the economic adaptability of the country and the state leading up to 2026.

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