Could Mexico Face a National Energy Collapse? An Expert's Insight

“CFE has complete control of the national electricity grid. An energy collapse is possible because, despite engineering and studies, everything is fortuitous. Electricity and electronics are not predictable,” explained Muñoz.

A Centralized System Under Pressure

Since CFE regained its role as the sole energy operator and provider, the system relies on its capacity to maintain and expand the grid. The cancellation of mixed investment schemes reduced private sector participation and limited the expansion of generation and transmission.

The sustained increase in electricity demand, driven by industry, household consumption, and electromobility, exerts growing pressure on an infrastructure operating at its technical limit. The power outages recorded in the north and the Bajío region reflect a fragmented and overstressed grid.

CENACE’s Role in Containing Failures

Despite the risks, Mexico possesses an advanced control system operated by the National Energy Control Center (CENACE). This agency monitors, segments, and isolates electrical failures to prevent them from spreading nationwide.

“If the collapse originates in the south, the southern section is cut off to prevent it from affecting the center and north. CENACE exhibits tremendous coordination to prevent national blackouts,” stated Muñoz.

Thanks to these mechanisms, the country reduces the risk of widespread power outages, although protection depends on the maintenance and response capability of each region.

Structural Factors and Preventive Measures

The greatest risk stems not only from centralized control but also from aging grids, a lack of investment in renewable generation, and insufficient backup infrastructure. Muñoz believes the system requires urgent modernization and greater private investment, accompanied by continuous technical training.

“It could happen, but Mexico is prepared to contain it. Technical coordination and fault segmentation are key to preventing a local failure from escalating into a national collapse,” he emphasized.

The possibility of a national energy collapse exists, but CENACE and CFE have protocols and specialized personnel to maintain system stability.

The challenge —specialists agree— will be to maintain a balance between state control, private investment, and technological updates to ensure a secure, reliable, and resilient electricity supply.

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