What Challenges Does Jalisco's Economy Face in 2026?

Jalisco’s economy is undergoing a phase of structural deceleration where recent growth is increasingly sustained by the informal sector, while formal employment loses momentum and inflation pressures purchasing power. This is revealed in the latest analysis by the ITESO Business School, based on data from INEGI and IMSS. Learn all the details.

Informal Sector Consolidates as a Driver of Growth in Jalisco

During the first nine months of 2025, the Gross Value Added (GVA) of the informal economy grew by 1.6% in Jalisco, surpassing the 0.9% advance recorded by total economic activity measured through the ITAEE. Nationally, the trend is similar: informality grew by 1.8%, exceeding GDP growth. This behavior confirms that the informal economy has ceased to be a cyclical phenomenon and has become a structural component of growth.

The ITESO analysis warns that this dynamism is particularly concentrated in secondary activities, such as informal construction, which in Jalisco registered a 9.2% growth, while primary and parts of the tertiary sectors showed contractions. Furthermore, informality is not limited to micro-enterprises: it also includes precarious labor schemes within formal economic units, expanding its scope within the productive system.

Labor Market: Historic Decline in Formal Job Creation

The economic weakening is most clearly reflected in the labor market. During the first two months of 2026, Jalisco generated merely 2,304 formal jobs, representing a 91% drop compared to the same period in 2025. Nationally, job creation also decelerated, with a 9.3% year-on-year decrease.

Although a monthly recovery of 5,424 jobs was recorded in the state in February, annual growth remains virtually stagnant at 0.2%, confirming a trend of labor fragility. This behavior is closely linked to economic deceleration, fewer new business creations, and the concentration of employment in fewer productive units.

Fewer Businesses, Lower Capacity to Generate Employment in Jalisco

The deterioration of the business fabric is another factor explaining the weakness of formal employment. In Jalisco, the number of employers registered with the IMSS has accumulated 19 consecutive months of declines, with a 1.9% annual contraction. Nationally, the trend has seen 20 negative months and a 2.5% reduction, with an accumulated loss of over 55,000 employer registrations since its peak in 2023.

The impact is concentrated in micro and small enterprises, particularly in sectors such as commerce and services, which depend on domestic consumption. This phenomenon limits the economic system’s capacity to generate new formal positions.

Inflation Above National Average in Jalisco

In parallel, inflation in Jalisco remains above the national average. In February 2026, the annual index stood at 4.55%, compared to 4.02% recorded nationwide. The main pressures stem from food, beverages, and services, where increases exceed 7% annually in some categories. This environment reduces household purchasing power and limits consumption recovery. Furthermore, external factors such as the rising cost of imported inputs and exchange rate volatility continue to pose risks to price stability.

Industry and Exports: Mixed Signals

The economic environment is complemented by a

heterogeneous performance. Nationally, industrial activity registered a slight contraction of 0.1% in January 2026, with declines in manufacturing. In the automotive sector, one of the export pillars, light vehicle production decreased by 0.8% annually in the first two months, while exports grew by merely 1.4%, still below their recent peaks. High dependence on the United States market —which accounts for over 75% of exports—, coupled with decelerating demand and new tariffs, adds pressure to the sector’s competitiveness.

Growth with Structural Fragility in Jalisco

Jalisco’s economic outlook reveals a paradox: growth sustained by informality, but with weakness in structural drivers such as formal employment, business investment, and productivity. The challenge ahead will be to reverse this dependence by strengthening formalization, incentivizing business creation, and containing inflationary pressures. Otherwise, the state could face a scenario where economic growth persists, but with lower quality, reduced productivity, and higher levels of social vulnerability.

The entry

first appeared in Líder Empresarial.